India Joins Arms Sanctions on Iran and North Korea

Quite a backlog of geopolitical news to sort through while YHS was gone this week including a ton on Russia, missile defense, INF and more. Here is a quick one re. India and support for arms sanctions vs. Iran and North Korea...(from New Dehli Zee News Television, 19 Apr)

India has prohibited trade in all arms and related products with Iran and North Korea in compliance with the UN Security Council's resolution to stop import and export of items which may contribute to strengthening of their nuclear programmes.

The ban, notified in the annual supplement of the Foreign Trade Policy today [19 Apr], comes ahead of the May one visit of North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Kim Hyong Jun for three-days to discuss strengthening of bilateral relations.

The government has prohibited direct and indirect export and import of materials, goods and technology which could contribute North Korea's nuclear-related, ballistic missile related or other weapons of mass destruction related programmes.

It has also prohibited direct or indirect export and import of all items, materials, goods and technology which could contribute to Iran's enrichment related, reprocessing or heavy water related activities or to development of its nuclear weapons delivery systems.

The meeting between North Korean minister and his Indian counterpart would be the first high level contact between the two countries since the latter conducted nuclear tests last October. The last foreign office consultations were held in Pyongyang in June 2005.

North Korean nuclear issue may also come up for discussion during the meeting in the backdrop of the atomic tests conducted by the communist country on October 9, 2006.

Iran's Space Launch: Did They or Didn't They?

(earlier report on Iran's space launcher acivity here)

Much reporting since yesterday regarding Iran's claims to have launched an object into space. To set the record right, Mohsen Bahrami, the head of Iran's aerospace research centre, told state television that "The first space rocket has been successfully launched into space," without disclosing its range or the date of the launch. He went on to state that "The rocket was carrying material intended for research created by the ministries of science and defence." Subsequent reports from the FARS News Agency says the rocket was really a 'sounding rocket' carrying scientific experiments to an altitude of only 150 km.

YHS has ample reason and evidence to suspect that even that did not take place. However, on the off chance that a sounding rocket was in fact launched, the kind of technology and engineering required for a sounding rocket is not extraordinary and well within the current capabilities of Iran to develop from the SRBMs they already have. One example of a sounding rocket in wide use in the West is the Black Brant which typically carries payloads of 70-850 kg up to altitudes of 150 - 1500 km (payload dependant) and provides up to 20 minutes of useful time for experiments in micro-gravity, upper atmospheric research and the like.

We'll certainly keep an eye on this evenmt and see what develops, but YHS is more concerned re. ongoing MR/IRBM development and what that portends, especially in light of Ahmadinejad's remarks over the weekend.

- SJS

A Black Brant being launched from White Sands Missile Range.

Things That Make You Go Hmmm....

In the face of rising inflation (78% over the past 4 years) nationalization of the country's largest electric company and the disappearance of staples from store shelves in reaction to government imposed price controls, comes this report on Venezuela's ongoing military build-up. The Su-30s are kind of old news, but growing bonds with a radical Iranian government in terms of arms and an apparent willingness to host Hezbollah should give one pause to ponder. Add in the ongoing de-construction of the Venezuelan constitution and associated freedoms - well, you decide...

Venezuela Strengthens Territorial Defense
Source: O Estado de Sao Paulo 05 Feb 07
[Report by Roberto Godoy: "Venezuela Expands Its Military Power."]

By 2012 the Venezuelan Navy will have the biggest and most powerful fleet of conventional submarines in Latin America. There will be 11 vessels, nine of them high-technology models and the other two modernized. Investment in the program is estimated at $3 billion. According to Navy Commander Admiral Armando Laguna, "they will all have the capability of operating in stealth mode for at least two months without receiving supplies from the outside during that period." In an official Navy communique, Laguna says that "as part of its aspiration to have fourth-generation submarines, the command has received offers from Germany, France, and Russia."

The Venezuelan Government is engaged in a vast reequipment program for its Armed Forces. The past 10 days have seen the announcement of three important undertakings involving the Russian Tor-M1 antiaircraft missile at $290 million, the modernization of from 12 to 16 American F-5 fighters by Iran, which will receive $70 million for the job, and the purchase of nine submarines. The result is military spending of $3.37 billion negotiated for the long term in one go.

The Hugo Chavez administration's main partner in the undertaking is the Russian Government. So far about $3.4 billion has been spent to acquire 24 Sukhoi-30 fighters, about 35 helicopters, and 100,000 Kalashnikov AK-47 rifles. A special line of credit for financing military equipment was released by President Vladimir Putin two years ago. The submarines that Venezuela is interested in will have a displacement in the neighborhood of 1,750 metric tons and will incorporate sound-reducing technologies. The Navy is considering three possibilities: the German IKL-214 -- the same model as that chosen by Brazil for expanding its fleet to six units -- the French Scorpene, similar to the vessels of that class acquired by Chile, and the Russian Amur, the favorite in the negotiations. The export version fires four light cruise missiles with a range of 300 km and up to 10 tactical or antiaircraft missiles. It also carries 18 533-mm heavy torpedoes and a crew of 35. The hull is covered by a synthetic mantle to confuse underwater detection sonar signals.

In an official communique, Admiral Laguna emphasizes that "the objective is to possess diesel-electric submarines ensuring the defense of the exclusive economic zone (EEZ), which is larger than the country's continental territory." Venezuela extends its limits based on its ocean island territory. As a result, the EEZ line defended by Caracas overlaps the maritime limits of Guyana, France, Holland, the United States, and the Antilles. The Navy employs two German IKL-209's that are over 30 years old. Both are being modernized at Dianca D&A, the local shipyard.

The Venezuelan Air Force has selected its main weapon for the impressive Su-30's. The first two aircraft out of a total of 24 were delivered in July of last year. The supersonic fighter jets will carry the most modern version of the Russian R-77 Adder missile. It has a range of 100 km and an ideal radius of 80 km. The missile weighs 175 kg. During the same speech in which he announced the choice of the R-77, Minister of Defense Raul Baduel revealed that the arrangement to be adopted in the modernization of the 12 American CF-5A fighters by Iran had not been decided. The Iranian aircraft industry has developed a project virtually resulting in a new supersonic jet based on the structure of the F-5 and characterized by a double tail assembly. Even the name -- Sae'gheh (Lightning) -- is new. The Venezuelan CF-5A's were produced in Canada under license during the 1970's. Little is known about the Sae'gheh. Besides the two rudders, which considerably increase maneuverability and agility, a new nose was created to hold the improved N019-ME radar, which can cover 80 km in surveillance mode and 40 km for detecting 10 targets. The fighter carries 5.5 metric tons of external loads: missiles, smart bombs, and extra fuel tanks.

Friday's Roll-up of Air/Missile Items

A couple of interesting news notes picked up whilst culling international lists (one of the nicer aspects of YHS' current job):

First item -- problems continue apace for the sublaunched variant of the Topol-M, the Bulava ("Mace"). Prior to this latest test (failure) there had been a number of statements in what passes for the open press in Russia indicating anything less than a successful shot would see "management changes."

Russia Faces Problems With Bulava Missile

Russia’s new submarine-launched Bulava missile has failed in its last three test flights, raising questions about the weapon’s development, United Press International reported Friday (Global Security Newswire, 5 Feb 2007)

The Bulava is based on the Topol-M ICBM. It received sufficient funding and had three successful tests. The missile then failed three times in a row during testing, most recently on Dec. 24. “These three test failures, and only three successes, are worrisome. So the test program has been temporarily suspended,” according to analyst James Dunnigan. Russian Federal Space Agency chief Anatoly Perminov told the Kommersant newspaper that 12 to 14 tests would be needed before the Bulava could be deployed.

“Given that Bulava blasts off two or three times a year, Russia’s armed forces will hardly get it sooner than two or three years,” according to Kommersant. “So, three failures of Bulava in a row may easily disrupt the country’s program of nuclear rearmament.”

Plans to deploy the missile on the submarine Yury Dolgoruky this year are unlikely to reach fruition, UPI reported. Two special commissions have been organized to investigate the December test failure. One will study the incident itself, while the other looks for the person who leaked news of the failure to the media, Kommersant reported.

The troubles with the Bulava exist in comparison to the reliability of the silo-based Topol-M. That might indicate that the problem lies in engineering the submarine launch tube for the missile, or that unforeseen problems arose while the missile was being adapted for submarine launches (Martin Sieff, United Press International/Spacewar.com, Feb. 2).

Next up -- India continues her path between the US and Russia; purchasing another 40 Su-30s while pursuing procurement of a new multi-role combat aircraft which has seen intense competiton between the US (F/A-18 E/F & F-16), Europe (Rafael & Grippen) and Russia (MiG-29:

India Air Force To Get 40 Sukhoi-30 Jets, Hercules Tankers, Choppers From Russia
CNN-IBN (Internet Version-WWW) in English 08 Feb 07 - New Delhi -- The Indian
Air Force [IAF] is all set to acquire more wings and ground force.

Air Chief Marshal S P Tyagi said on Thursday that the IAF will acquire 40 Sukhoi-30 jet aircraft, six Hercules tankers and a large number of helicopters. Tyagi said the all the procurements will be ordered from Russia and will be finalised by March 2007. The jets will be in addition to 130 Sukhois already ordered.

On Wednesday, Defence Minister A K Antony also announced that India will also buy 126 multi-role fighter jets worth over $5 billion.

"The procedure (for acquiring the jets) is almost in the final stages. I can assure you that a decision will be taken very quickly," Antony said after inaugurating the sixth Aero India show in Bangalore.

Companies vying to bag the lucrative contract are France's Dassault (Rafale), Russia's RAC-MiG (MiG-29M2), Sweden's Saab (JAS-39 Gripen) and Lockheed Martin (F-16) and Boeing (F-18) of the US, some of which participated in the flight displays also. On the development of a fifth generation jet for the IAF, Antony said India would jointly produce the aircraft with Russia's fighter plane manufacturer, Sukhoi. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited and DRDO [Defense Research and Development Organization] would also be involved in the process, he added.

Antony also informed that a proposal for an aerospace command has been sent by the IAF but no decision has been taken on the issue. "It has to be a tri-service command. Discussions are going on but there are several issues. I cannot give a time limit," Antony said.

On the light combat aircraft (LCA) project, Antony said that it has not been put on the backburner. "The LCA is very much on track. Initially there were some problems, but it is on the right track now. There is no question of abandoning it," he informed. The next five years of the 11th Plan period would see India procuring defence equipment worth $8 to $10 billion. "For that, procedures are already taking shape," he said.

Earlier, inaugurating the air show, Antony said India was fully committed to maintaining peace and stability with its neighbours. "In the global context, we wish to achieve this objective through effective diplomacy backed by credible military deterrence."

The country has initiated several confidence-building measures with its neighbours including Pakistan and China.

"But we cannot remain complacent and there is a need for eternal vigil. We have to modernise our armed forces backed by a strong deterrent to prevent a war," Antony said.

And of course, how could the week not be complete but for the announcement by the Iranians of another wargame exercise, this time testing anti-ship and their newly acquired S-300 missiles

Iran To Conduct Missile War Games
Tehran Fars News Agency in English 0830 GMT 07 Feb 07

TEHRAN (Fars News Agency)- Iran plans to stage missile war games during a two-day period beginning Wednesday. The war games will be carried out in southern waters of the country in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman.

The military exercises to be carried out by the air and naval forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) are aimed at testing the IRGC's missile capability, an IRGC statement said. The maneuvers will include placement, launch and tracking operations.

The statement also mentioned that the maneuvers have been designed to retest the achievements gained during earlier war games of the country codenamed 'Great Prophet 1 and 2'. The war games to be staged by the IRGC air force has been named as 'Ra'd' (thunder) and the one by IRGC naval forces has been called as 'Sa'eqeh' (lightening), the statement concluded.

S-300 video:







ed: YHS has video of the cruise missile launch - may be the w/end before it can be added though...he's working it ;)

- SJS

Tuesday's Roll-up of Missile/Nuclear News

Reverberations continue this week over the Chinese ASAT test and allegations of Iranian and North Korean cooperative development of nukes and long range missiles; meanwhile Iran continues to rattle the cage with announcement of another Shahab-3 test and a “new” sub-surface ship killer missile; India announces its intent to establish a dedicated aerospace defense command (don’t call it an Indian NORAD though since they aren’t partnering w/China or Pakistan…); Russia continues to push back hard against deploying ground-based elements of the US’ ballistic missile defense system (BMDS). Lots of stuff to cover – we’ll hit the first two today and follow with the rest tomorrow:

a. ASAT Fallout. The magnitude of the debris issue (as first pointed out in these posts here and here) continues to grow. To bring the esoteric into a framework readily understood, the Center for Space Standards and Innovation has developed a hi-res video here (quicktime variant sans music is also available on the site). What it truly illustrates is (1) the crossing danger to the ISS and other platforms, manned or not, in an equatorial orbit and (later) a sense of the size of the debris field in relation to all the other objects currently on orbit. Arms Control Wonk also has an aptly titled article re. same subject. If you want to roll up your sleeves and get into the mechanics of kinetic kill ASATs, check out this paper .

b. Iran, North Korea; missiles and nukes. A target rich environment, as the saying goes. Towards the end of last weeks’ round of wargames/missile tests, the Iranians tested another Shahab-3 (last test was part of the Noble Prophet round in Nov ’06). A spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry indicated this was the final test before handing the missile over to the army for operations. The Shahab has been in development since 1998 and reputedly it or a variant forms the core of a Taepo Dong-like satellite launcher announced by the Iranians last week. According to the article in this week’s Aviation Week & Space Technology (subscription may be required) the payload would be a 44-lb satellite that would be not much more than a radio transmitter – about what Sputnik was. The launcher would most likely consist of a liquid-fueled 1^st (Shahab-3 or -3 derived) and 2^nd stage (Scud B) and an indigenously developed solid fuel third stage, likely using a Chinese design, possibly with strap-on solid fuel boosters for the first stage. Launch would likely be on a southerly heading from central Iran (site of most of the long-range testing) out over the Indian Ocean. On the ballistic missile front, one of the implications of a successful satellite launch would be further development to loft heavier payloads (and the implications that has for development/deployment of nuclear warheads) and increased complexities for Israel’s Arrow ABM because of the increased speed and steeper angle of re-entry of the warhead. This in turn, would drive Israel to look at either improving its Arrow system or acquiring a US system like THAAD which is oriented to intercepting higher-speed targets in the terminal phase. (ed: Of course the real irony here lies in the criminalization of private ownership of satellite dishes by the great unwashed public whilst the powers-that-be announce their intention to orbit a satellite...)

Over on the nuke front, speculation continues over just what form or line of development an Iranian nuke program might be taking. Essentially, there are two types of devices that can serve as either a weapon in their own right, or as a trigger for a boosted device or thermonuclear device – implosion or gun. The gun design essentially smashes two masses together to cause a critical mass and nuclear detonation. This was used in the “Little Man” bomb dropped on Hiroshima. While simple(r) in design than an implosion device, it still is nonetheless a complex beast, has a smaller yield and drives other design issues that make it less than favorable for the linear acceleration g’s experienced in missile launches. The implosion device, where you have a physics package or “pit” made of a sphere of plutonium or highly enriched uranium, is more amenable to tighter packaging though getting the conventional explosion just right for implosion can be a trick. Also the material used, HeU or Pu will drive the size of the pit and complexity of calculations for explosion. This is why even a failed test (like the North Koreans had in Oct 07) will still provide useful data. See Paul Kerry’s blog for more on this idea. More about nuke weapons design at the Nuclear Weapons archive – scroll down the page and look under “Reference” for comparisons of the two devices mentioned above. Where the nuclear cooperation would come into play would be any lessons learned the North Koreans would pass along to the Iranians (for the right price) from their October test as alleged in an article in the Telegraph . Whether the meetings that the article states began in November of ’05 really took place is a point of dispute with denials by several high-ranking officials of the story’s validity. Secretary of State Rice has gone on the record as saying the report wasn’t based on anything she has seen. Given the cooperation seen in the development of the Iranian missile program, supported by North Korea (and China, and Pakistan and other proliferators…) one is hard pressed to be so dismissive about similar undertakings in the nuclear world, a condition that is aggravated by Iran’s lack of transparency in their nuclear program.

One other, and lesser heralded, event from last week's round of tests was the demonstration of a surface ship firing a rocket-propelled torpedo at another distant surface target. While boasting (again) of indigenous design, it most likely is an export version of the Russian VA-111 Shkvall ("Squall") and mirrors an ealier demonstration last spring.

Friday's Missile News: Iranian Satellite & China's DF-31

Couple of quick ones from around the 'sphere:

1. Iran Announces It Has Built a Satellite Launcher. (26 January) - Jerusalem Post. Iran has converted its 30-ton Shahab-3 missile into a satellite launch vehicle, a US-based aviation journal reported Thursday. According to Aviation Week and Space Technology, Alaoddin Boroujerdi, chairman of Iran's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, told a group of students and clerics in Qom, near one of Iran's missile test sites, that the launcher is assembled and will "soon" be sent into space with one of Iran's satellites. Israeli defense expert Uzi Rubin, in a report to the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, said that "once Iran learns how to put 300 kg. into earth orbit, it could adapt the satellite launcher into an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that could drop more than 300 kg. anywhere in the world." In August, an Iranian hard-line cleric warned Israel that Iranian missiles would land in Tel Aviv if the "Jewish state" attacked Iran, Iranian state-run television reported. Ahmad Khatami, a mid-ranking cleric, said Israel should bear in mind its month-long war with Hizbullah before considering any threats against Iran.
   Boasting that Hizbullah's 70-km.-range missiles 'turned Israel into a country of ghosts,' Khatami declared that Israel would face dire consequences if it 'makes an iota of aggression against Iran.' 'They must fear the day [Iran's] 2,000-kilometer-range missiles land in the heart of Tel Aviv,' he said. Iran has consistently claimed that its Shahab-3 missiles have a range of 2,000 km. However, US defense analysts believe the Shahab-3's range to be 800-1,000 km., which nevertheless includes Israel, Saudi Arabia, all of the Persian Gulf, and southern Turkey. However, Congress has received reports from the US Defense Intelligence Agency that Iran could develop an ICBM with a range of 3,000 km. by 2015.
   
   YHS is taking a "wait and see" attitude re. this report. On the one hand, the Iranians, like the Soviets under Kruschev tend to wax hyperbolic over capabilities (Remember Kruschev's remarks about Russian factories turning out missiles like so many sausages? U-2 and later, Corona imagery proved otherwise and that the missile gap was in favor of the US) both real and imagined. The ability to loft a satellite into orbit does not necessarily confer ICBM capabilities to a launcher. Recall that the first US satellite, explorer, was launched atop a Jupiter-C which was a modified Redstone MRBM liquid fuel first stage with two solid fuel upper stages consisting of clustered Sergeant rockets, that lofted a 14kg satellite into orbit. The Iranian version likely takes a similar path - liquid fuel 1st stage and solid fuel 2nd/3rd stage (see illustration below of "Iris" or Shahab-3D. OTOH, if they have developed and successfully launch this configuration, it raises the stakes for missile defense in that now you are looking at a seperating target (vice unitary) to whch penetration aides may be added and increases the threat level for Israel and the Gulf States. It doesn't mean that suddenly New York or Washington are going to be ranged by the Shahab-3.
   


2. Whither the DF-31? Good analysis/discussion here and here re. the reliability and development problems of the DF-31 ICBM (DIA classification). There is a reason, afterall, that it *is* called rocket science. Reference also discussion here regarding system reliability.

-SJS

North Korean - Iranian Cooperative Ventures

Some increased levels of chatter these past few days re. cooperation between Iran and NK in nuclear weapons and missile fields. First up, the nuclear issue:

• NORTH KOREA HELPING IRANIANS TO SET UP NUKE TEST: REPORT: KOREANS SHARING THEIR TEST RESULTS, The VancouverProvince (British Columbia), January 24, 2007. North KoreaIran to prepare an underground nuclear test similar to the one Pyongyang carried out last year, according to a senior European Union defense official. Under the terms of a new understanding between the two countries, the North Koreans have agreed to share all the data and information they received from their successful test last October with Tehran's nuclear scientists. … A senior European defense official told the Daily Telegraph that North Korea had invited a team of Iranian nuclear scientists to study the results of the underground test to assist Tehran's preparations to conduct its own -- possibly by the end of this year. There were unconfirmed reports at the time of the Korean firing that an Iranian team was present. Iranian military advisers regularly visit North Korea to participate in missile tests. Now the long-standing military co-operation between the countries has been extended to nuclear issues. …Same story was carried by Reuters and Haaretz.

In an interview last night on Tehran television, President Mahmud Ahmadinejad said Iran will resist pressures because its nuclear activities are “transparent”. “Our logic is clear. We have had the greatest cooperation with the IAEA… because we are transparent and we like our nuclear dossier to be investigated transparently and that is the reason why we are insisting on this issue.” As a member of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran is legally entitled to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. “We have acted legally.”

Of course, no mention was made of the 38 IAEA inspectors who were barred from entering the country on Monday... Transparency yes, just not in the way the world expects it.

Over at Arms Control Today is an article about a possible new type missile (call it the No Dong B) that is a purported derivative of an early generation Soviet SLBM, the SS-N-6.

• Perhaps the most important recent development is Iran’s apparent purchase from North Korea of missiles with a range possibly exceeding that of Tehran’s longest-range deployed ballistic missile, the Shahab-3. The Israeli newspaper Ha`aretz quoted Major General Amos Yadlin, the head of the Israel Defense Forces Intelligence Branch, as saying that Tehran had purchased the missiles, some of which had already arrived in Iran. A knowledgeable former Department of State official told Arms Control Today Dec. 19 that the reports are “certainly credible.”

The United States believes that North Korea has been deploying the same missile, which is reportedly based on the Soviet SS-N-6. Washington believes Pyongyang is deploying the missile in a road-mobile mode, although the SS-N-6 was a submarine-launched ballistic missile.

The United States and South Korea estimate that the missile, which North Korea has never tested, could potentially have a range of 2,500-4,000 kilometers, according to press reports. The most advanced version of the SS-N-6 had an estimated range of 3,000 kilometers. Any new missile’s range would vary considerably depending on the size of its payload.

During a Nov. 12 television interview, Major General Yahya Rahim-Safavi, commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps indicated that Iran tested a Shahab-3 capable of traveling 2,000 kilometers. Tehran has previously claimed to possess a missile with such a range.

The noteworthy item about this development is not that we can expect to see NK SSBN's putting to sea anytime in the near (or far) future with a loadout of SLBMs. Rather, it is that the same characteristics that make an SLBM attractive also make it attractive for road mobile applications. Indeed, the Russians are attempting this same feat in reverse with a SLBM variant of the SS-27, the Bulava (which has had multiple launch failures). Add in the fact that Iran and NK are closely allied in missile development (Iranian observers were reportedly present for Kim's July 4/5 fireworks show, including the failed TD-2 launch) and such a missile would be imminently attractive to the Iranians for its range and mobility as well as throw weight. The early models of the SS-N-6 could deliver a 1500 lb warhead over a distance of 1300 nm (later mods up to 1900 nm).

The SS-N-6 is not a solid fuel rocket, using instead storable liquid fuel, which is a step up from the liquid fuel used now in the various Shahab variants, but not as great a leap to solid fuel. Additionally, while 1500 lb is a substantial payload (and close to the Sahab's estimated 1100-1500 lb payload) an early Iranian nuclear weapon is likely to weigh more than that. It was almost a decade before the US finally developed a warhead that weighed in the 1,000 lb range that could be adapted to a missile (the W7 -- 890 - 1000 lb, 2-40 kt yield).

Still, when all is said and done, it is well worth keeping one's eyes on this synergistic combination (nuclear and missile testing/support) between Iran and NK... The prospect of nuclear capable, road-mobile missiles able to range goodly portions of Europe (and Russia) should give pause to think to our erstwhile allies and is one of the driving forces behind the so-called "third site" BMD system being examined for European basing (and will be subject of a forthcoming post).

- SJS